A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
